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无人驾驶汽车:前路漫漫

2019-11-17 17:46 性质:转载 作者:minglau 来源:卫报双语阅读
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Few ideas haveenthusedtechnologists as much as the self-driving car. Advances in machine learning, asubfieldof artificial intelligence...

Few ideas haveenthusedtechnologists as much as the self-driving car. Advances in machine learning, asubfieldof artificial intelligence (AI), would enable cars to teach themselves to drive by drawing on reams of data from the real world. The more they drove, the more data they would collect, and the better they would become.Robotaxissummoned with the flick of an app would make car ownership obsolete. Best of all, reflexes operating at the speed of electronics would drastically improve safety. Car- and tech-industry bosses talked of a world of “zero crashes”.


很少有东西能像自动驾驶汽车一样激发技术专家们的热情。机器学习的发展是人工智能(AI)的一个子领域,它将使汽车能够利用来自现实世界的大量数据进行自我驾驶学习。随着驾驶次数越多,收集的数据就越多,他们的自动驾驶能力就会变得越好。亲亲在应用程序上一扫就能叫来无人车,这无疑让汽车所有权这个概念变得模糊。最重要的是,以电子器件的速度运行的反射装置将大大提高安全性。汽车和科技行业的老板们都在谈论一个“零事故”的世界。


    And the technology was justaround the corner. In 2015 Elon Musk, Tesla’s boss, predicted his cars would be capable of “complete autonomy” by 2017. Mr Musk is famous for missing his own deadlines. But he is not alone. General Motors said in 2018 that it would launch a fleet of cars without steering wheels or pedals in 2019; in June it changed its mind. Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary widely seen as the industry leader, committed itself to launching a driverless-taxi service in Phoenix at the end of 2018. The plan has been adamp squib. Only part of the city is covered; only approved users can take part. Phoenix’s wide, sun-soaked streets are some of the easiest to drive on anywhere in the world; even so, Waymo’s cars have human safety drivers behind the wheel, just in case.


    而这项技术的到来指日可待。特斯拉老板埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在2015年预测,他的汽车将在2017年实现“完全自主驾驶”。马斯克先生因错过自己定下的这个日期而闻名。但是他并不是唯一一个。通用汽车在2018年表示,它将在2019年推出一批没有方向盘或踏板的汽车; 但是在6月它就改变了主意。被广泛视为行业领导者的Alphabet的子公司Waymo承诺在2018年底在凤凰城推出无人驾驶出租车服务。该计划的实行却不尽人意。只有一部分城市被覆盖;只有获得批准的用户才能参加。凤凰城宽阔,阳光普照的街道是世界上最容易驾车的地方;即便如此,Waymo的汽车还是配备了人类安全驾驶员,以防万一。


    Jim Hackett, the boss of Ford, acknowledges that the industry “overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles”. Chris Urmson, alinchpinin Alphabet’s self-driving efforts (he left in 2016), used to hope his young son would never need a driving licence. Mr Urmson now talks of self-driving cars appearing gradually over the next 30 to 50 years. Firms are increasingly switching to a moreincrementalapproach, building on technologies such as lane-keeping or automatic parking. A string of fatalities involving self-driving cars havescotched the ideathat a zero-crash world is anywhere close. Markets are starting to catch on. In September Morgan Stanley, a bank, cut its valuation of Waymo by 40%, to $105bn, citing delays in its technology.


    福特汽车的老板吉姆·哈克特(Jim Hackett)承认,汽车行业“高估了自动驾驶汽车的到来”。克里斯·乌尔姆森(Chris Urmson)是Alphabet的自动驾驶项目的关键人物(他于2016年离职),过去他曾希望他的小儿子永远不需要驾驶执照。乌尔姆森先生现在谈到,自动驾驶汽车将在未来30至50年内逐步出现。公司越来越多地转向使用更多的逐步渐进的发展方式,发展车道保持系统或自动停车等技术。自动驾驶汽车所导致的一系列死亡事件使人们动摇了认为零事故世界近在咫尺的想法。市场也在跟进。去年9月,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)以技术延迟为由,将Waymo的估值下调了40%,至1,050亿美元。


    The future, in other words, is stuck in traffic. Partly that reflects the tech industry’spredilectionfor grandiose promises. But self-driving cars were also meant to be a flagship for the power of AI. Their struggles offer valuable lessons in the limits of the world’s trendiest technology.


    所以,换句话说,我们的未来还是在交通堵塞。 这部分反映了科技行业喜欢做出宏伟的承诺。但是自动驾驶汽车也将成为AI发挥其力量的首要标志。他们的努力让我们对这个世界上最流行的技术所存在的局限性提供了宝贵的经验教训。



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